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Sudden wealth part of Silicon Valley’s everyday

May 18, 2012

By MARCUS WOHLSEN | Associated Press  –  MENLO PARK, Calif. (AP) — In Silicon Valley , where sudden wealth is hardly something new and CEOs favor hoodies over bespoke blazers, Facebook ‘s IPO on Friday didn’t bring everyday life to a halt

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By MARCUS WOHLSEN | Associated Press – 

MENLO PARK, Calif. (AP) — In Silicon Valley, where sudden wealth is hardly something new and CEOs favor hoodies over bespoke blazers, Facebook‘s IPO on Friday didn’t bring everyday life to a halt.

Employees weren’t popping champagne corks at company headquarters, at least not where anyone outside could see them. And locals had plenty to do —from finding a job to locating the next Facebook.

The company’s sprawling headquarters along the southern edge of San Francisco Bay was quiet except for security guards walking the parking lots, a dozen TV satellite trucks and an onslaught of reporters who were not allowed inside.

The morning began with a ceremony attended by a few dozen people in a courtyard in the center of campus known as Hack Square. Mark Zuckerberg rang the opening bell to start the Nasdaq Stock Market’s daily trading as chief operating officer Sheryl Sandberg, Nasdaq executives and other employees looked on.

Afterward, employees tried to get back to business as usual. That is, building a company under immense pressure to meet shareholders’ expectations. To remind everyone not to get caught up in the hoopla, Facebook’s 2,000 employees were given t-shirts that read “Stay focused & keep hacking.”

As is standard at large tech companies in Silicon Valley, employees were told not to talk to the press.

In the parking lot, venture capitalist Mark Siegel had come down to take a longing look at one that got away. Like many of his fellow technology startup investors with offices a short drive from Facebook on Silicon Valley’s famed Sand Hill Road, Siegel said he had chances to back Facebook early on but didn’t.

He said at the time, when competing social networks like Friendster and MySpace still had clout, it wasn’t clear that Facebook would come out on top.

“In hindsight, any price would have been a good price to pay,” said Siegel, a managing director at Menlo Ventures.

To avoid a similar fate in the future, Siegel’s firm is invested heavily in Internet and social media companies, including popular blogging service Tumblr.

As for the viability of Facebook as an investment now that it’s public, Siegel said he expects the stock to be in for a bumpy ride in the near future.

“I might buy a little, but I would buy it as a long-term hold,” he said. “It’s very fully valued, so I think in the short-term there’s going to be a lot of ups and downs.”

At a strip mall that includes the closest Starbucks to Facebook, the company’s stock was not the first thing on everyone’s minds. (Not that anyone at Facebook needs to come across the highway to Starbucks — gourmet coffee is just one of the company’s many meal perks.)

Ann House, 49, an education researcher at a nearby nonprofit, said the IPO would obviously mean more rich people in the area, but she’s been pleasantly surprised so far that the company’s recent move to its new headquarters hasn’t yet led to a big uptick in street traffic.

Though not a heavy Facebook user, she said the ads on the social network’s site have started to annoy her more. She expects the IPO won’t help.

“It probably means there’s going to be more advertising on the site, so I’ll use it less,” she said.

Claire Bonnar, 22, of Pacifica became a teenager shortly before Facebook first went online, but she doesn’t count herself among the Facebook generation. She has an account, but she said she only logs on once every few months. She said she communicates with her friends by text message and phone to avoid the headaches she witnessed among former co-workers who were heavy users.

“They’d always be in each others’ business,” she said. “I don’t want that kind of drama.”

Facebook’s IPO was also far from Bonnar’s mind as she focused on more pressing concerns. Laid off from her job at a San Diego hospital a few months ago, she came north to be with family. She works as a cashier at a San Francisco barbecue restaurant to make ends meet while she plots her next move.

An aspiring pharmacist, she had traveled the 30 miles from Pacifica to a job training center in Menlo Park that, by coincidence, receives money from Facebook. The company does community outreach since moving into its new headquarters, which borders on neighborhoods that are far from wealthy.

Bonnar said she doesn’t find it weird that Mark Zuckerberg, also in his 20s, has become one of the world’s richest men thanks to an online service she doesn’t even like.

“I think that it’s really awesome, actually. It sucks I’m not in his position.”

Why you shouldn't buy Facebook stock today

May 18, 2012

By DAVE CARPENTER | Associated Press  –  Even the hottest initial public stock offerings can lose steam after their first day of trading. Sure, company insiders will make money selling at the opening price. And investors who used connections or big bucks to score shares at the IPO price will profit if they sell after a first-day “pop.” For everyone else, the wildly mixed record of other ballyhooed IPOs beyond their first trading session offers a lesson.

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By DAVE CARPENTER | Associated Press – 

Even the hottest initial public stock offerings can lose steam after their first day of trading.

Sure, company insiders will make money selling at the opening price. And investors who used connections or big bucks to score shares at the IPO price will profit if they sell after a first-day “pop.”

For everyone else, the wildly mixed record of other ballyhooed IPOs beyond their first trading session offers a lesson. It’s one that should remind us that buying Facebook stock Friday provides a chance to lose money.

It’s understandable that everyone wants to get in early on what could be the next Google. Shares of the Internet search leader had an initial offering price of $85 in 2004, started on the stock market at $100 and climbed above $700 by 2007. Even after moving sideways for more than four years, they’re still above $600.

But odds are against hitting a grand slam like that in the current market.

Cautionary points to weigh if the Facebook frenzy is tempting you to buy stock on Day 1:

YOU’LL PAY MORE FOR YOUR STOCK THAN THE SMART MONEY DID.

The vast majority of average investors couldn’t get in at the $38-per-share offer price. Those shares went largely to company insiders, the deal’s underwriters or their fat-walleted clients. The price almost always shoots quickly higher by the time orders to buy at the market price kick in.

SEVERAL OF LAST YEAR’S “MUST-HAVE” IPOS AREN’T ANY MORE.

— Pandora, an Internet radio company, went public June 15 at $20 a share. You could have bought the stock during the day for $26. It’s now trading under $11.

— Groupon, the online daily deal company, priced its stock at $20 a share in its Nov. 4 IPO. The stock traded above $31 the first day. Now it’s under $13.

— Zynga, the developer of “FarmVille” and other Facebook games, went public at $10 a share on Dec.16. The stock traded as high as $11.50 on its opening day. Lately it’s around $8.

— Even one of last year’s IPO stars isn’t a huge winner when you factor in the risk. LinkedIn more than doubled from its $45 offer price within minutes of hitting the market last May 19 and reached $122.70 before closing the first day at $94.25. It’s back to around $105 after a turbulent year, with a modest overall gain of 11 percent since the first day.

Buy-and-hold investors who want to make money off Facebook should hold off on the first day of trading. Maybe later they can think about buying.

Facebook IPO shares tough task for small investors

May 14, 2012

By DAVE CARPENTER | Associated Press  –  CHICAGO (AP) — Hoping to get in on Facebook ‘s hotly anticipated public stock offering?

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By DAVE CARPENTER | Associated Press – 

CHICAGO (AP) — Hoping to get in on Facebook‘s hotly anticipated public stock offering? You’ll need Facebook friends at very high levels — or a lot of money.

Most people who like the idea of owning Facebook’s stock will have difficulty getting it at the offer price, currently expected at $28 to $35 a share. Unless you know the right people at Facebook, you’ll likely need to have a large, active account with one of the big banks or brokerage firms directly involved in the stock sale.

Otherwise, you can take your chances by buying shares after the initial public offering is completed, when Facebook begins trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market under the ticker symbol “FB.” That’s likely to happen Friday.

Doing it that way typically means paying much more for the stock, however. And heavy demand skews the early stock price, leaving an investor vulnerable to the risk of a big drop.

Jerome Cleary isn’t deterred. One of a legion of Facebook fans, he has never wanted to own a stock as much as he wants to buy this one. Cleary, a standup comedian in Los Angeles, says he has already signed up for an account with a discount online brokerage so he’ll be ready.

“I know you should buy stock in what you know and like,” Cleary says. “I feel that because they have an incredible mass of wealth and such growing popularity, the stock really may pay off.”

Facebook Inc.’s IPO is expected to be the largest ever for an Internet company. It’s expected to raise as much as $11.8 billion for Facebook and its early investors — far more than the $1.67 billion raised in Google Inc.’s 2004 IPO.

Analysts say there’s so much interest in Facebook’s stock that some underwriters are closing their books as early as Tuesday. This means they won’t be taking any more orders from potential buyers. The IPO is expected to be completed late Thursday, with shares available for trading Friday.

Scott Sweet, the owner of advisory firm IPOBoutique, says the high demand also means that Facebook might raise the per-share price above $35, the high end of the range Facebook currently expects. Facebook and the IPO’s lead underwriter, Morgan Stanley, declined to comment.

If you’re thinking of investing in Facebook, here are some things to consider.

— IPO SHARES

Facebook and its early investors are selling more than 337 million shares, but those shares are parceled out very carefully, away from the public’s eyes.

Typically individuals get to buy no more than 10 percent to 20 percent of shares sold at an IPO’s offering price. The vast majority will go to company insiders, institutional investors, the underwriters selected by the company to handle the process and preferred clients of all of them.

Morgan Stanley leads the team of 33 underwriters selected for the Facebook offering, followed by JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs.

The inclusion of online broker E-Trade Financial Corp. as an underwriter was seen as a glimmer of hope that Facebook might make more shares available than usual for retail investors through discount brokerages. But chances of getting any are very slim regardless.

— ELIGIBILITY

The big online brokerages have been taking formal requests from customers for Facebook’s IPO. They anticipate they’ll get their own allocations from one source or another, such as one of the underwriters. E-Trade, Fidelity Investments, Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade, among others, have been fielding abundant queries.

But the requirements they set on who gets them eliminate most small investors.

Fidelity, which will be getting an undetermined number of shares from underwriter Deutsche Bank, says customers should have $500,000 in their accounts and have made 36 trades in the past year to be eligible. Ameritrade’s account requirements are at least $250,000 and 30 trades in three months. Schwab’s are a minimum $100,000 or 36 trades in the past year, but the firm says it also has other requirements.

Even meeting the requirements is no guarantee of getting shares.

Joshua Freeman, an information technology professional in New York, knows investing in Facebook is risky, but he believes “it’s got a pretty good shot to make some money.”

He has been investing with E-Trade since the mid-1990s and has about $200,000 in his account. But he’s pessimistic about his request for 100 Facebook shares at the IPO price, given the frenzy over the offering.

“I’m hoping to get some but I’m guessing that I won’t,” Freeman says. “I’m hoping it follows the trend and goes crazy and then dips a little bit. If it does that, I may buy some on the open market.”

— OPEN MARKET

If you strike out as an insider, it will still be easy, but expensive, to buy shares on the open market. Open and fund an account with a brokerage. Then for a transaction fee of as little as $7, you can buy Facebook stock at whatever price the market demand has driven it.

Be aware that the price could jump significantly by the time you place your order. Among last year’s hottest IPOs, Groupon Inc. soared in the opening minutes and gained 31 percent on the first day of trading. Zillow Inc. jumped 79 percent and LinkedIn Corp. more than doubled.

Investors buying on the open market miss much or perhaps all of any first-day “pop.”

The first-day market price of newly issued stocks during the past decade has been an average 11 percent higher than the offer price, according to University of Florida finance professor Jay Ritter.

For investors buying at the offer price, Facebook is likely to produce a gain on the first day, he says. But once it starts trading, investors should think of it as just another stock that’s as likely to go down as up.

Consider this: Groupon, which went public at an IPO price of $20 six months ago, soared as high as $31.14 on the first day. It closed Monday at $11.73, 41 percent below the offer price.

As for the idea of buying the stock at a low point a few months from now, Ritter says that has not worked historically as a reliable strategy with IPOs. And this one’s starting at a very high price, he emphasizes, with optimistic expectations of future growth built into it.

The only sure winners, he says, will be Facebook employees and venture capitalists who invested in the company when it was private.

James Breyer and his Accel Partners firm, investors since 2005, stand to make up to $1.34 billion from the 38.2 million shares they are offering. Zynga Inc. CEO Mark Pincus, a Facebook investor since 2004, stands to make up to $35 million on 1 million shares.

“The time to buy Facebook was five years ago,” Ritter says.

Syrian pound, stock market plummet: IMF

May 9, 2012

AFP  –  The value of the Syrian pound is down 45% on the parallel market and the stock market has slumped 40% since an uprising broke out in March 2011, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday. “The exchange rate on the black market has depreciated by 45% and 25% on the official market,” IMF deputy managing director Nemat Shafik told reporters in Beirut. The unrest has damaged the Syrian economy but little data is available, Shafik added.

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AFP – 

The value of the Syrian pound is down 45% on the parallel market and the stock market has slumped 40% since an uprising broke out in March 2011, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday.

“The exchange rate on the black market has depreciated by 45% and 25% on the official market,” IMF deputy managing director Nemat Shafik told reporters in Beirut.

The unrest has damaged the Syrian economy but little data is available, Shafik added. “For security reasons,” the IMF has been unable to send a team to the country.

“We know that GDP has fallen but we don’t have any numbers because we haven’t had people on the ground,” she said, adding the last IMF visit took place in January-February 2011.

Meanwhile, the stock market has plunged by 40%. “The fact that the stock market has fallen by 40 percent is an important indicator of what has happened to businesses,” the IMF official said.

The strife-torn country’s economy, hit by sanctions, is expected to suffer “significant” contraction in 2012, the head of the IMF’s Middle East, North Africa, Gulf and Central Asia department, Masood Ahmed, told AFP in May.

“The impact that the sanctions will have on oil exports for Syria will be the most immediate,” Shafik said, noting that Libya’s GDP fell by 60% when exports were halted during its conflict last year.

“Oil is a much bigger part of the Libyan economy than it is for Syria,” she said. “But still, for Syria it is its major foreign exchange earner and a big revenue earner for the government.”

The Iraqi economy is also affected by the crisis, Shafik said, noting the landlocked state’s dependency on its Mediterranean neighbour.

“Syria is Iraq’s main link to the Mediterranean, so transit trade from Iraq via Syria is potentially disrupted.”

Iraq is “quite dependent” on Syria, as “a significant proportion of Iraqi imports come from Syria, particularly commodities,” she noted.

Neighbouring Lebanon has also been affected by the crisis. “We have seen a decline in trade,” Shafik said.

There has also been a decline in tourism from Syria, while Lebanese banks have withdrawn from Syria to reduce their exposure to the crisis, the IMF official added.

The EU has adopted several rounds of sanctions against Syria, expected to tighten further, to pressure President Bashar al-Assad’s regime to halt its deadly crackdown on a 14-month uprising.

In September, the EU banned Syrian crude oil imports. The EU was the main importer of Syrian oil, at 95% of the total, while the industry provided the embattled state with a third of its foreign exchange earnings.

According to IMF data, Syria’s economy grew 5.9% in 2009 and 3.4% in 2010.

Stock Trading Remains in a Slide After ’08 Crisis

May 6, 2012

Mario Tama/Getty Images The New York Stock Exchange. Investors have pulled away from stocks and instead are favoring bonds, despite low interest rates.

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Mario Tama/Getty Images

The New York Stock Exchange. Investors have pulled away from stocks and instead are favoring bonds, despite low interest rates.

Even though American stocks have doubled in price in the last three years, investors and traders large and small keep giving the market the cold shoulder.

Trading in the United States stock market has not only failed to recover since the 2008 financial crisis, it has continued to fall. In April, the average daily trades in American stocks on all exchanges stood at nearly half of its peak in 2008: 6.5 billion compared with 12.1 billion, according to Credit Suisse Trading Strategy.

The decline stands in marked contrast to past economic recoveries, when Americans regained their taste for stock trading within two years of economic shocks in 1987 and 2001.

This time around, the stock market has many more players, including high-speed trading firms, which have recently come to account for over half of all stock market activity. But even they, like all other major groups, have recently been doing less overall trading.

“When you keep in mind recent history, this is kind of uncharted territory,” said Justin Schack, an analyst at Rosenblatt Securities.

Many market experts say the biggest reason for the shrinking volume is that traders and investors remain leery that the economy will suddenly turn on them in the wake of the financial crisis, the wild swings in stock prices and the European debt troubles.

Investors and financial industry professionals are struggling to understand what the decline could mean, particularly if it continues. Less rapid trading by short-term speculators could be a good thing for buy-and-hold investors tired of being burned by the market. But the decline could also signal a broader turn away from the domestic stock market by investors who want to hold less of their nest eggs in stocks and by companies that opt for raising capital in bond markets instead of issuing shares.

“My expectation was that we would see people go back to the stock market,” said Charles Rotblut, a vice president of the American Association of Individual Investors. “It remains to be seen whether there will be a core group of people that is just turned off of the stock markets altogether.”

The New York-based system of stock trading has been showing the strain of the slowdown. The New York Stock Exchange said last week that trading in the first quarter fell 23 percent from a year earlier. A few days earlier, Nasdaq announced that its first-quarter revenues from stock trading in the United States were down 7 percent from a year ago. Both exchange companies have aggressively moved to capture other businesses that do not rely on stock trading, but they have also embarked on cost-cutting programs.

“We can’t be certain as to when or whether the volume is going to recover,” said Lee Shavel, chief financial officer at the Nasdaq OMX Group.

The recent slowdown has occurred not only on the nation’s 13 official exchanges and trading platforms. Dozens of off-exchange operations have captured a larger proportion of all stock trades in recent years, but even their overall trading numbers have been trending down.

The decline in trading has not sent the prices of stocks down. Though there is less buying and selling, the people who have remained in the market are willing to pay higher prices, driving the value of the benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index up 102 percent since the market hit a bottom in the spring of 2009.

But the recent falloff in trading is striking because data from the New York Stock Exchange shows that volumes have not declined for three consecutive years in records going back to 1960. For an explanation of the lower trading volumes, many market-watchers have looked to the high-speed traders, who use computers algorithms to take advantage of small price discrepancies and who have accounted for an increasing share of all trading in recent years.

These firms have been curtailed slightly by recent regulations aimed at making the markets less volatile. But more fundamentally, industry participants say high-speed traders rely on transacting with slower, traditional traders like retail investors and mutual funds. When those groups pull back, the high-speed firms have little choice but to scale back as well.

“On a typical trade, two high-frequency trading firms will not trade against each other,” said Manoj Narang. His New Jersey high-speed trading firm, Tradeworx, is still growing, he said, but for most established firms, if ordinary investors “don’t want to trade, there’s really simply nothing for us to do.”

Among retail investors, the most reliable source of trading volume has been the day traders who were given access to cheaper trading by discount brokers like E*Trade and TD Ameritrade.

Waiting Out the Stock Market with Preferred, High-Yield ETFs

May 2, 2012

Stock investors have been frustrated with the choppy action in markets the past several weeks as they wait for the next major trend to develop. Analysts are wondering if a run at the all-time highs from 2007 is in the cards, or if the S&P 500 will succumb to worries over the Eurozone debt crisis and stagnant U.S. job market.

Continued here:

Stock investors have been frustrated with the choppy action in markets the past several weeks as they wait for the next major trend to develop.

Analysts are wondering if a run at the all-time highs from 2007 is in the cards, or if the S&P 500 will succumb to worries over the Eurozone debt crisis and stagnant U.S. job market. Equities are entering the volatile summer period.

Some investors are choosing to stay on the sidelines in the meantime and collect the generous income being offered by high-yield bond ETFs. Funds indexed to preferred stock are another popular option with investors seeking yield.

Despite the recent turbulence in stocks, junk bond ETFs such as iShares iBoxx High Yield Fund (HYG – News) and SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond (JNK – News) are making new 2012 highs and have held at the 50-day moving average. [High-Yield Bond ETFs Come with Risks]

“In the past, positive price appreciation in the high-yield complex has been a good signal for the broad stock market,” says Chris Kimble at Kimble Charting Solutions.

The iShares S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index Fund (PFF – News) has also survived a recent test of this technical indicator. [ETF Chart of the Day: Preferred Stocks]

HYG and JNK, the junk bond ETFs, are sporting 30-day SEC yields of nearly 7%. PFF, the preferred stock fund, has a yield of 6.5%. [Preferred Stock ETFs: High Yield, Financial Sector Risks]

SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond

high-yield-etf iShares S&P U.S. Preferred Stock Index Fund

preferred-stock-etf

Why stock market is spinning its wheels despite positive trends

April 30, 2012

Consumer income and spending are up, but the stock market has been largely stagnant since February. Two big trends could be behind the Dow’s tepid spring. First it was the jobless recovery

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Consumer income and spending are up, but the stock market has been largely stagnant since February. Two big trends could be behind the Dow’s tepid spring.

First it was the jobless recovery. Now it seems like the joyless recovery. Despite gains in personal incomes and spending for March, the US stock market sagged Monday.

Skip to next paragraph

The Dow Jones Industrial Average spent the morning in negative terrain, compared with Friday’s close, and that’s part of a broader trend.

After rising in this year’s early weeks, the widely watched Dow index has been treading water since February, a little below or above the 13000 level.

What’s holding back investor spirits?

Corporate profits, after all, have reached historically high levels, yet the Dow’s level of about 13200 Monday remains well below the pre-recession peak (about 700 points above that).

Two factors appear to be important:

  • America’s economic momentum, embodied in the news about consumer incomes and spending, is still tepid.
  • The US is currently the patch of green in a global landscape characterized by the economic equivalent of a drought in Europe and storm threats in China and Iran.

Here’s what the Commerce Department reported: Personal income in the US rose 0.4 percent in March, and spending rose by a similar amount, 0.3 percent. Not racing forward, especially when inflation is taken into account, but those are steps of progress.

“The good news in this report is the strength in income,” said IHS Global Insight economist Leslie Levesque in a written analysis. “For the first time this year, growth in income … was in positive territory” even after adjusting for inflation and taxes.

Consumer spending, also rising faster than inflation in the government’s report for March, represents the vital bulwark of economic growth. When incomes are rising and consumers spend, business tend to increase hiring.

Monday’s news confirms the impression left on financial markets last week, when the government’s estimate of first-quarter economic growth came in weaker than expected. The report showed gross domestic product (GDP) rising at a 2.2 percent annual pace, with the gains largely fueled by domestic consumption.  (Business investment is also rising, while changes in government consumption and foreign trade subtracted from the growth rate.)

Overall, economists see welcome signs of a recovery that has solid footing in the US. The woes in the housing market are starting to fade, and private sector employers have been adding jobs each month, contributing to the gains in consumer income. Many forecasters see the economy growing at a similar pace in the current quarter.

To some extent, consumers are showing a happier mood, although not exuberance.

“Consumer sentiment has clearly improved somewhat in recent months, aided by steadily the improving job market and better economic news flow,” economist Chris Williamson of the financial-data firm Markit said in an analysis of the GDP numbers Friday.

But judging by the stock market, investors have an eye on the risks as well as the progress.

In the US, they don’t see a lot of room for positive surprises. The personal income and spending report, for example, showed that US consumers have been saving less of their income in recent months. With the savings rate at 3.8 percent of disposable income in March, household savings don’t look as healthy as last year’s level of 4.7 percent.

After a post-recession rebound, gains in corporate profits may be modest in coming quarters, which could explain the lackluster performance of the Dow and other stock indexes.

Global forces also weigh on the economic outlook. Investors responded Monday to news that Spain’s economy is in recession, reporting two straight quarters of decline in GDP. That news points to broader worries about how weakness in Europe will affect the global economy.

Other danger spots include the risk of a further spike in oil prices if tension surrounding Iran’s nuclear program intensifies, and the risk that China’s cooling economy could have a “hard landing.”

For now, IHS Global Insight expects China and the US to muddle through and lead the world economy higher. The firm’s forecast for global GDP growth is 2.8 percent for 2012, and 3.6 percent in 2013.

Why stock market is spinning its wheels despite positive trends

April 30, 2012

Consumer income and spending are up, but the stock market has been largely stagnant since February. Two big trends could be behind the Dow’s tepid spring

More here:

Consumer income and spending are up, but the stock market has been largely stagnant since February. Two big trends could be behind the Dow’s tepid spring.

First it was the jobless recovery. Now it seems like the joyless recovery. Despite gains in personal incomes and spending for March, the US stock market sagged Monday.

Skip to next paragraph

The Dow Jones Industrial Average spent the morning in negative terrain, compared with Friday’s close, and that’s part of a broader trend.

After rising in this year’s early weeks, the widely watched Dow index has been treading water since February, a little below or above the 13000 level.

What’s holding back investor spirits?

Corporate profits, after all, have reached historically high levels, yet the Dow’s level of about 13200 Monday remains well below the pre-recession peak (about 700 points above that).

Two factors appear to be important:

  • America’s economic momentum, embodied in the news about consumer incomes and spending, is still tepid.
  • The US is currently the patch of green in a global landscape characterized by the economic equivalent of a drought in Europe and storm threats in China and Iran.

Here’s what the Commerce Department reported: Personal income in the US rose 0.4 percent in March, and spending rose by a similar amount, 0.3 percent. Not racing forward, especially when inflation is taken into account, but those are steps of progress.

“The good news in this report is the strength in income,” said IHS Global Insight economist Leslie Levesque in a written analysis. “For the first time this year, growth in income … was in positive territory” even after adjusting for inflation and taxes.

Consumer spending, also rising faster than inflation in the government’s report for March, represents the vital bulwark of economic growth. When incomes are rising and consumers spend, business tend to increase hiring.

Monday’s news confirms the impression left on financial markets last week, when the government’s estimate of first-quarter economic growth came in weaker than expected. The report showed gross domestic product (GDP) rising at a 2.2 percent annual pace, with the gains largely fueled by domestic consumption.  (Business investment is also rising, while changes in government consumption and foreign trade subtracted from the growth rate.)

Overall, economists see welcome signs of a recovery that has solid footing in the US. The woes in the housing market are starting to fade, and private sector employers have been adding jobs each month, contributing to the gains in consumer income. Many forecasters see the economy growing at a similar pace in the current quarter.

To some extent, consumers are showing a happier mood, although not exuberance.

“Consumer sentiment has clearly improved somewhat in recent months, aided by steadily the improving job market and better economic news flow,” economist Chris Williamson of the financial-data firm Markit said in an analysis of the GDP numbers Friday.

But judging by the stock market, investors have an eye on the risks as well as the progress.

In the US, they don’t see a lot of room for positive surprises. The personal income and spending report, for example, showed that US consumers have been saving less of their income in recent months. With the savings rate at 3.8 percent of disposable income in March, household savings don’t look as healthy as last year’s level of 4.7 percent.

After a post-recession rebound, gains in corporate profits may be modest in coming quarters, which could explain the lackluster performance of the Dow and other stock indexes.

Global forces also weigh on the economic outlook. Investors responded Monday to news that Spain’s economy is in recession, reporting two straight quarters of decline in GDP. That news points to broader worries about how weakness in Europe will affect the global economy.

Other danger spots include the risk of a further spike in oil prices if tension surrounding Iran’s nuclear program intensifies, and the risk that China’s cooling economy could have a “hard landing.”

For now, IHS Global Insight expects China and the US to muddle through and lead the world economy higher. The firm’s forecast for global GDP growth is 2.8 percent for 2012, and 3.6 percent in 2013.

US stock futures dip on weak consumer spending

April 30, 2012

Associated Press  –  NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stock market futures slipped Monday as consumer spending growth slowed last month and Spain officially slipped back into recession. Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 0.17 percent to 13,142

Continued here:

Associated Press – 

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stock market futures slipped Monday as consumer spending growth slowed last month and Spain officially slipped back into recession.

Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 0.17 percent to 13,142. Standard & Poor’s 500 futures gave up 0.25 percent to 1,395, and Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.36 percent to 2,727.

The Commerce Department reported that spending growth slowed in March, while incomes rose 0.4 percent, slightly ahead of expectations.

Recent economic reports are generating concern that the recovery is slowing down. Since consumer spending makes up about 70 percent of the economy, a cutback in the rate of spending growth could be reflecting weak income gains and a slowing job market.

Problems in Europe aren’t helping.

European markets were mainly lower, weighed down by growing concerns over Spain. Data released Monday confirmed that Spain slipped back into recession in the first quarter. A new recession could make it harder for the government to cut its budget deficit, and raises the worry that the country might be locked into a downward financial spiral.

Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s on Friday downgraded Spain to just three notches above junk, following up the move on Monday by lowering its rating for 11 Spanish banks, which are loaded with bad debt from a collapsed housing market. Spain is the fourth-largest economy in the eurozone. There is worry that the continent’s bailout funds won’t be big enough to rescue Spain if it needs assistance.

Germany’s DAX was off 0.22 percent at 6,786. France’s CAC 40 was down 1.06 percent at 3,231. Britain’s FTSE 100, which often trades contrary to the rest of European markets, edged up 0.49 percent at 5,777.

Trading in Asia was light because of holidays in Japan and mainland China. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.7 percent to 21,094.21, South Korea’s Kospi added 0.3 percent to 1,981.99 and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.8 percent to 4,396.60.

Investors in those markets focused on the U.S. economy and hopes that the Fed might sanction another round of bond-buying, known as quantitative easing, after figures last Friday showed the world’s largest economy grew less than expected in the first quarter.

U.S. stocks to watch include Barnes & Noble Inc. and Microsoft Corp., which are teaming to create a unit to house the digital and college businesses of the bookseller and include a Nook application for Windows 8. The companies said Monday that they may separate those businesses entirely. That could mean a stock offering, sale, or other deal could happen.

Barnes & Noble shares shot up more than 9 percent to $25.95 in premarket trading. Microsoft added 6 cents to $32.04.

Shares of health insurer Humana Inc. fell more than 4 percent to $84 after reporting a 21 percent drop in first-quarter profit, falling short of Wall Street expectations.

US stock futures dip on weak consumer spending

April 30, 2012

Associated Press  –  NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stock market futures slipped Monday as consumer spending growth slowed last month and Spain officially slipped back into recession. Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 0.17 percent to 13,142

Continued here:

Associated Press – 

NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. stock market futures slipped Monday as consumer spending growth slowed last month and Spain officially slipped back into recession.

Dow Jones industrial average futures fell 0.17 percent to 13,142. Standard & Poor’s 500 futures gave up 0.25 percent to 1,395, and Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.36 percent to 2,727.

The Commerce Department reported that spending growth slowed in March, while incomes rose 0.4 percent, slightly ahead of expectations.

Recent economic reports are generating concern that the recovery is slowing down. Since consumer spending makes up about 70 percent of the economy, a cutback in the rate of spending growth could be reflecting weak income gains and a slowing job market.

Problems in Europe aren’t helping.

European markets were mainly lower, weighed down by growing concerns over Spain. Data released Monday confirmed that Spain slipped back into recession in the first quarter. A new recession could make it harder for the government to cut its budget deficit, and raises the worry that the country might be locked into a downward financial spiral.

Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s on Friday downgraded Spain to just three notches above junk, following up the move on Monday by lowering its rating for 11 Spanish banks, which are loaded with bad debt from a collapsed housing market. Spain is the fourth-largest economy in the eurozone. There is worry that the continent’s bailout funds won’t be big enough to rescue Spain if it needs assistance.

Germany’s DAX was off 0.22 percent at 6,786. France’s CAC 40 was down 1.06 percent at 3,231. Britain’s FTSE 100, which often trades contrary to the rest of European markets, edged up 0.49 percent at 5,777.

Trading in Asia was light because of holidays in Japan and mainland China. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.7 percent to 21,094.21, South Korea’s Kospi added 0.3 percent to 1,981.99 and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 0.8 percent to 4,396.60.

Investors in those markets focused on the U.S. economy and hopes that the Fed might sanction another round of bond-buying, known as quantitative easing, after figures last Friday showed the world’s largest economy grew less than expected in the first quarter.

U.S. stocks to watch include Barnes & Noble Inc. and Microsoft Corp., which are teaming to create a unit to house the digital and college businesses of the bookseller and include a Nook application for Windows 8. The companies said Monday that they may separate those businesses entirely. That could mean a stock offering, sale, or other deal could happen.

Barnes & Noble shares shot up more than 9 percent to $25.95 in premarket trading. Microsoft added 6 cents to $32.04.

Shares of health insurer Humana Inc. fell more than 4 percent to $84 after reporting a 21 percent drop in first-quarter profit, falling short of Wall Street expectations.

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